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Objectives We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an epidemic. Methods We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek testing. We demonstrate the robustness, accuracy, and precision of this framework, and apply it to the United States (U.S.) COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 IFRs. Results The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision; for instance, when applied to simulated validation data sets, across counties, Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928, respectively, and they showed strong robustness to model misspecification. Applying the county-level estimators to the real, unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020 from across the U.S., we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69, with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of 2.14. Conclusions The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings. 

Current methods for defining SARS-CoV-2 lineages ignore the vast majority of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. We develop and apply an exhaustive vector comparison method that directly compares all known SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences to produce novel lineage classifications. We utilize data-driven models that (i) accurately capture the complex interactions across the set of all known SARSCoV-2 genomes, (ii) scale to leadership- class computing systems, and (iii) enable tracking how such strains evolve geospatially over time. We show that during the height of the original Omicron surge, countries across Europe, Asia, and the Americas had a spatially asynchronous distribution of Omicron sub-strains. Moreover, neighboring countries were often dominated by either different clusters of the same variant or different variants altogether throughout the pandemic. Analyses of this kind may suggest a different pattern of epidemiological risk than was understood from conventional data, as well as produce actionable insights and transform our ability to prepare for and respond to current and future biological threats. 

In this work we identify changes in high-resolution zones across the globe linked by environmental similarity that have implications for agriculture, bioenergy, and zoonosis. We refine exhaustive vector comparison methods with improved similarity metrics as well as provide multiple methods of amalgamation across 744 months of climatic data. The results of the vector comparison are captured as networks which are analyzed using static and longitudinal comparison methods to reveal locations around the globe experiencing dramatic changes in abiotic stress. Specifically we (i) incorporate updated similarity scores and provide a comparison between similarity metrics, (ii) implement a new feature for resource optimization, (iii) compare an agglomerative view to a longitudinal view, (iv) compare across 2-way and 3-way vector comparisons, (v) implement a new form of analysis, and (vi) demonstrate biological applications and discuss implications across a diverse set of species distributions by detecting changes that affect their habitats. Species of interest are related to agriculture (e.g., coffee, wine, chocolate), bioenergy (e.g., poplar, switchgrass, pennycress), as well as those living in zones of concern for zoonotic spillover that may lead to pandemics (e.g., eucalyptus, flying foxes). 

Stochastic Programming (SP) is used in disaster management, supply chain design, and other complex problems. Many of the real-world problems that SP is applied to produce large-size models. It is important but challenging that they are optimized quickly and efficiently. Existing optimization algorithms are limited in capability of solving these larger problems. Sample Average Approximation (SAA) method is a common approach for solving large scale SP problems by using the Monte Carlo simulation. This paper focuses on applying clustering algorithms to the data before the random sample is selected for the SAA algorithm. Once clustered, a sample is randomly selected from each of the clusters instead of from the entire dataset. This project looks to analyze five clustering techniques compared to each other and compared to the original SAA algorithm in order to see if clustering improves both the speed and the optimal solution of the SAA method for solving stochastic optimization problems.